SUBJECT: Ph.D. Proposal Presentation
BY: Evan Redd
TIME: Friday, October 21, 2016, 1:00 p.m.
PLACE: Boggs, 3-39
TITLE: Sensitivity Analysis and Parameterization of Passively Measured Prompt-Diagnostic Signatures from a Nuclear Detonation and the Effects on Early-time Attribution
COMMITTEE: Dr. Anna Erickson, Chair (NRE)
Dr. Glenn Sjoden (NRE)
Dr. Michael Shannon (NRE)
Dr. Adam Stulberg (INTA)
Dr. Brandon Grogan (ORNL)


The complexity of early-time weapon dynamics requires thorough sensitivity analysis of all possible device characteristics and phenomena. Developing sensitivity indices for these variables based on passively measured signatures highlights which variables contribute to the variance in the studied output. Further grouping of these variables offers several convenient consequences: quantification of variable interaction, error reduction, and attribution time-line reduction. Input variable interaction quantification is possible based on the response variance and total sensitivity indices. Grouping input variables reduces the error associated with early-time measurements. Error reduction is politically valuable for attribution at early-times because of the output complexities and measurement limitations. Implementing nuclear forensic sensitivity analysis on passively measured signatures has the potential to answer many questions with regard to early-time weapon phenomena, device reconstruction, and attribution.